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Background <p>Our recent estimate of the global 1-year prevalence of headache among those aged 18–65 years was 65%: considerably higher than previous estimates, but based solely on high-quality epidemiological data derived from a large population-based sample. Here we present complementary estimates of 1-day prevalence.</p> Methods <p>We performed a meta-analysis of individual participant data from cross-sectional surveys among population-representative samples (age range 18–65 years) from 15 countries and all world regions. All used the Headache-Attributed Restriction, Disability, Social Handicap and Impaired Participation (HARDSHIP) questionnaire, including the question “did you have a headache yesterday?”, from which 1-day prevalence was determined. An algorithmic process applying modified ICHD criteria yielded separate estimates for migraine, tension-type headache (TTH) and probable medication-overuse headache (pMOH: the association of headache on ≥ 15 days/month and medication overuse). We analysed associations with age, gender and country-income level, and adjusted prevalence estimates for these factors. We calculated predicted 1-day prevalence from 1-year prevalence and reported headache frequency.</p> Results <p>Among the 38,512 participants, females (53.4%) and participants from low- (17.1%) or lower-middle-income countries (64.6%) were overrepresented, but age distribution fairly matched that of the world. Overall, 13.7% (95% CI: 13.3–14.0) reported headache yesterday, females (17.1% [16.6–17.6]) more than males (9.7% [9.3–10.2]). Migraine was the most common headache type yesterday (6.0% [5.8–6.3]), followed by TTH (4.1% [3.9–4.3]) and pMOH (2.3% [2.2–2.5]). One-day headache prevalence was higher in low/lower-middle-income countries (13.9% [13.6–14.3]) than in high/upper-middle-income countries (12.4% [11.6–13.2]). Predicted 1-day prevalence (10.9% [10.7–11.1]) was considerably lower than observed 1-day prevalence (13.7% [13.3–14.0]), although not among those with pMOH (3.1% [3.0-3.3] versus 2.3% [2.2–2.5]). Adjusted for age, gender and country-income level, global 1-day prevalence estimates were 13.1% (12.8–13.5) for any headache, 5.7% (5.5–5.9) for migraine, 3.9% (3.7–4.1) for TTH and 2.4% (2.3–2.6) for pMOH, with 1.0% undiagnosed.</p> Conclusion <p>Assuming yesterday was no different from any other day, an estimated 13.1% (<i>N</i> = 641,900,000) of the world’s population aged 18–65 years will have headache tomorrow; almost half will be migraine. People with migraine or TTH underestimate the frequency of headache episodes. Since headache-attributed burden is usually estimated from recalled frequency over 1–12 months, this also may be underestimated.</p>

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Over 600 million people aged 18–65 will have headache tomorrow: global 1-day prevalence and recall bias from a meta-analysis of individual participant data (N = 38,512) from the general populations of 15 countries

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月25日

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  • Andreas Kattem Husøy,
  • Shengyuan Yu,
  • Ruozhuo Liu,
  • Akbar A. Herekar,
  • Bilal Ahmed,
  • Arif D. Herekar,
  • Callixte Kuate Tegueu,
  • Anastase Dzudie Tamdja,
  • Annick Mélanie Magnerou,
  • Najib Kissani,
  • Latifa Adarmouch,
  • Thierry Adoukonou,
  • Mendinatou Agbetou,
  • Oyéné Kossi,
  • Mehila Zebenigus,
  • Redda Tekle-Haimanot,
  • Dawit K. Worku,
  • Girish N. Rao,
  • Girish B. Kulkarni,
  • Gopalkrishna Gururaj,
  • Mohammed Al Jumah,
  • Ali M. Al Khathaami,
  • Suliman Kojan,
  • Guiovanna Quispe,
  • Carlos Palomino-Diaz,
  • Youssoufa Maiga,
  • Robert P. Cowan,
  • Mattias Linde,
  • Ajay Risal,
  • Debashish Chowdhury,
  • Krishnan Anand,
  • Ashish Duggal,
  • Otgonbayar Luvsannorov,
  • Dorjkhand Baldorj,
  • Selenge Enkhtuya,
  • Ilya Ayzenberg,
  • Zaza Katsarava,
  • Gretchen L. Birbeck,
  • Daiva Rastenytė,
  • Lars Jacob Stovner,
  • Timothy J. Steiner

摘要

Background

Our recent estimate of the global 1-year prevalence of headache among those aged 18–65 years was 65%: considerably higher than previous estimates, but based solely on high-quality epidemiological data derived from a large population-based sample. Here we present complementary estimates of 1-day prevalence.

Methods

We performed a meta-analysis of individual participant data from cross-sectional surveys among population-representative samples (age range 18–65 years) from 15 countries and all world regions. All used the Headache-Attributed Restriction, Disability, Social Handicap and Impaired Participation (HARDSHIP) questionnaire, including the question “did you have a headache yesterday?”, from which 1-day prevalence was determined. An algorithmic process applying modified ICHD criteria yielded separate estimates for migraine, tension-type headache (TTH) and probable medication-overuse headache (pMOH: the association of headache on ≥ 15 days/month and medication overuse). We analysed associations with age, gender and country-income level, and adjusted prevalence estimates for these factors. We calculated predicted 1-day prevalence from 1-year prevalence and reported headache frequency.

Results

Among the 38,512 participants, females (53.4%) and participants from low- (17.1%) or lower-middle-income countries (64.6%) were overrepresented, but age distribution fairly matched that of the world. Overall, 13.7% (95% CI: 13.3–14.0) reported headache yesterday, females (17.1% [16.6–17.6]) more than males (9.7% [9.3–10.2]). Migraine was the most common headache type yesterday (6.0% [5.8–6.3]), followed by TTH (4.1% [3.9–4.3]) and pMOH (2.3% [2.2–2.5]). One-day headache prevalence was higher in low/lower-middle-income countries (13.9% [13.6–14.3]) than in high/upper-middle-income countries (12.4% [11.6–13.2]). Predicted 1-day prevalence (10.9% [10.7–11.1]) was considerably lower than observed 1-day prevalence (13.7% [13.3–14.0]), although not among those with pMOH (3.1% [3.0-3.3] versus 2.3% [2.2–2.5]). Adjusted for age, gender and country-income level, global 1-day prevalence estimates were 13.1% (12.8–13.5) for any headache, 5.7% (5.5–5.9) for migraine, 3.9% (3.7–4.1) for TTH and 2.4% (2.3–2.6) for pMOH, with 1.0% undiagnosed.

Conclusion

Assuming yesterday was no different from any other day, an estimated 13.1% (N = 641,900,000) of the world’s population aged 18–65 years will have headache tomorrow; almost half will be migraine. People with migraine or TTH underestimate the frequency of headache episodes. Since headache-attributed burden is usually estimated from recalled frequency over 1–12 months, this also may be underestimated.