Schools and Hospitals Close to Home: Impact of Social Infrastructure on Population Dynamics
摘要
The population dynamics of settlements are determined by many different factors, including, as research shows, the availability of educational and healthcare facilities (i.e., basic social infrastructure) close to home. One can assume a two-way relationship: a decrease in population entails a reduction in the number of assigned students in schools and healthcare institutions and, as a result, the optimization of social infrastructure within walking distance; and, conversely, the closure of basic social infrastructure institutions causes an outflow of population from such settlements. This article assesses the population’s provision of basic education and healthcare services based on a 10% sample of Russian municipalities (226, which, according to the 2021 census, included about 16 700 settlements). It is associated with the population size of settlements, their belonging to the suburbs of large cities and the peculiarities of the settlement system. The analysis was carried out using descriptive statistics, regression modeling, clustering, and mapping. The results showed that, contrary to expectations, the provision of educational and healthcare institutions in settlements is practically not associated with the population dynamics over the last intercensal period (2011–2021). Moreover, for relatively large settlements (with populations of over 1000 residents), a significant inverse relationship between population dynamics and the availability of schools and healthcare facilities is found; such a relationship is absent only with the availability of kindergartens. The results indicate that the dynamics of population in settlements in the 2010s depends not on the provision of social infrastructure, but, above all, on their position in the core–periphery system and the characteristics of the settlement network. The article discusses the limitations of the calculations performed, the reasons for the obtained relationships, and suggests directions for further research.