Forecast for the Resilience of the Kuzbass Economy in Conditions of Systemic Challenges in the Context of Coal Mining Development

An open, export-oriented economic model of Kemerovo oblast (the Kuznetsk Basin—Kuzbass), Russia, was formed by the early 2000s. Over the past 20 years, this model has provided the largest coal-producing territory in Russia with relatively sustainable development. However, as practice shows, this stability actually depends on a single factor: the price of coal on world markets, which is subject to sharp fluctuations. Today, in the context of a change in world order, the implementation of a global energy transition, and the formation of a new model for the development of the Russian economy, the Kuzbass finds itself in a turbulence zone and is forced to look for ways to adapt to the changed reality. The authors of the article developed three scenarios for the development of Kemerovo oblast in the future until 2035. All scenarios are based on the assumption that the coal industry will continue to have an exceptional influence on the region. The analysis and the authors’ quantitative assessment of scenarios in the context of economic resilience of the Kuzbass in the period 2000–2035 allow the conclusion that the most preferable option for the region is structural adaptation of the coal industry with parallel implementation of transformation maneuvers in the economy. Although this scenario provides for relatively low growth rates, it creates prerequisites for minimizing strategic challenges and provides the Kuzbass with long-term stable development trajectory. The results obtained in the study can be used in shaping regional structural policy.