Transformation of the Territorial Structure of the Population of the Nizhny Novgorod Urban Agglomeration in 2019–2021

The article studies transformations that occurred in the territorial structure of the population of the Nizhny Novgorod urban agglomeration in 2019–2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The identified changes are analyzed in the context of two concepts: urban socioeconomic shrinkage and territorial (spatial) resilience. Particular attention is paid to microlevel changes in the territorial distribution of day and night populations, studied on the basis of aggregated anonymized mobile network operator data. The results of the study allow us to broaden understanding of the structure of urban agglomerations as local settlement systems from the standpoint of their potential response to crisis phenomena. In addition, the study may be of interest in terms of the formation mechanisms of the internal territorial resilience of large urban agglomerations. Also, one aspect of its scientific novelty was the delimitation of the Nizhny Novgorod urban agglomeration by assessing the integral transport accessibility. Based on the results of the study, it is postulated that the territorial structure of the population of the Nizhny Novgorod urban agglomeration showed a relatively high level of resilience to the adverse consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is explained by the complex nature of its design and potential ability to redistribute negative effects. One of the key reactions of the territorial structure of both the daytime and nighttime populations was the growth of its microlevel polarization, which especially affected public, business, and mixed zones, as well as large residential areas. An increase in polarization was observed in the central zones of cities, including the core of the urban agglomeration, corresponding to the historical center of Nizhny Novgorod. There is a trend towards differentiation of low-density residential suburban areas. Based on the above, the conclusion is postulated that the changes that have occurred in the territorial structure of population can be called a special form of “agglomeration shrinkage,” not accompanied by a reduction in the population of the urban agglomeration, but increasing internal territorial disproportions.