Large-Scale Interregional Railway Projects: Assessing the Comparative Efficiency of Alternatives

Abstract—The article analyzes options for large-scale railway projects: the Barents Sea–Komi–Ural rail line (Barentskomur) and the North Siberian Railway (Severosib). The feasibility of constructing these projects has been discussed for almost a century. The uncertainty of the results of these latitudinal megaprojects and the costs of their implementation is of strategic importance for Russia. In the long term, the results of these megaprojects may have mixed effects on public performance. In existing methods, uncertainty is associated with a particular degree of risk. To justify the designs, sets of measures are proposed that minimize risks (of a probabilistic and non-probabilistic nature). This article presents an alternative approach when the uncertainty factor is analyzed constructively, in terms of future opportunities. To solve the problems that arise here, the tools of neosystems analysis according to Ya. Kornai and G.B. Kleiner, understood as design of a multidimensional future using a holistic system for assessing large-scale projects with the support of information and expert technologies. It is shown how a set of Russian software products developed at Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences and the Siberian State Transport University is expanding the capabilities of expert technologies in developing recommendations for people making complex investment decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty.