Range Dynamics of the Invasive Insect Pests Colorado Potato Beetle Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say, 1824) (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae) and Potato Moth Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller, 1873) (Lepidoptera, Gelechiidae) in Russia under Global Climate Change Conditions

The Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) and potato moth (Phthorimaea operculella) belong to the global list of the most dangerous invasive species in the world, including Russia, which cause significant damage to agriculture. However, the pattern of their spatial distribution under the current climate, economic impacts in Russia, and future range dynamics under global climate change conditions have not yet been described. In Russia, these two species L. decemlineata and P. operculella were first reported in 1960 and 1980, respectively. In this study, we used ensemble modeling (eSDM) methods to predict the potential distribution of insect pests in Russia and found that, with global climate change in the future, there will be a trend of range expansion in two directions, from south to north and from west to east. The histories of species spread in the world and the current and potential ranges in the period from 2020 to 2100 with a step of 20 years under different models and scenarios of climate change in Russia are presented. Information on native ranges, features of biology, characteristics of host plant damage and harmfulness, methods of species identification, vectors of invasion, and estimation of economic damages is provided. Predicted species ranges are important for developing measures to minimize future invasions of L. decemlineata and P. operculella and their harmful effects.