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Abstract <p>Based on distribution data and environmental variables from Hulun Buir, this study applied an optimized MaxEnt model to assess grasshopper habitat suitability under current and future climates. The model performed well (AUC: 0.869/0.829), identifying western regions as currently highly suitable due to cold-season precipitation, thermal stability, terrain–vegetation heterogeneity, and human activity. Projections under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios indicate habitat expansion correlated with CO<sub>2</sub> increases, illustrating how climate warming and rising CO<sub>2</sub> jointly drive distribution shifts. These findings support early warning and adaptive management of grasshopper outbreaks in the region.</p>

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MaxEnt-Based Prediction of Grasshopper Distribution in Hulun Buir in Response to Climate and CO2 Changes

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月27日

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  • Hongru Yue,
  • Fuyuan Ta,
  • Youchen Zhen,
  • Hongwei Li,
  • Narisu,
  • Minna Pang,
  • Fangzheng Yue,
  • Kuanyan Tang,
  • Ning Wang

摘要

Abstract

Based on distribution data and environmental variables from Hulun Buir, this study applied an optimized MaxEnt model to assess grasshopper habitat suitability under current and future climates. The model performed well (AUC: 0.869/0.829), identifying western regions as currently highly suitable due to cold-season precipitation, thermal stability, terrain–vegetation heterogeneity, and human activity. Projections under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios indicate habitat expansion correlated with CO2 increases, illustrating how climate warming and rising CO2 jointly drive distribution shifts. These findings support early warning and adaptive management of grasshopper outbreaks in the region.