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Abstract <p>The study assesses the impact of demographic processes on the formation of long-term constraints on economic growth in the Republic of Armenia. Based on a retrospective analysis of fertility levels, mortality rates, population age structure and migration flows, as well as quantitative estimates using a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR), key channels of influence of demographic processes on the potential for expanded reproduction were identified. It has been shown that declining fertility, rising mortality in working age, population aging and persistently negative net migration reduce the supply of labor, increase the burden on the budget and limit the rate of growth of total factor productivity. The results demonstrate that demographic trends are creating a systemic demographic crisis and require comprehensive policies in the areas of employment, migration, and human capital development.</p>

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The Role of Demographic Processes in the Formation of Constraints on Economic Growth in the Republic of Armenia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月20日

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  • E. M. Sandoyan,
  • I. B. Petrosyan,
  • G. A. Petrosyan,
  • E. G. Petrosyan,
  • Z. K. Papian

摘要

Abstract

The study assesses the impact of demographic processes on the formation of long-term constraints on economic growth in the Republic of Armenia. Based on a retrospective analysis of fertility levels, mortality rates, population age structure and migration flows, as well as quantitative estimates using a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR), key channels of influence of demographic processes on the potential for expanded reproduction were identified. It has been shown that declining fertility, rising mortality in working age, population aging and persistently negative net migration reduce the supply of labor, increase the burden on the budget and limit the rate of growth of total factor productivity. The results demonstrate that demographic trends are creating a systemic demographic crisis and require comprehensive policies in the areas of employment, migration, and human capital development.