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Abstract <p>Our study based on 94 quarterly observations shows that the dynamics in Azerbaijan’s balance of payments depend significantly on imports, exports, GDP, exchange rate, fiscal deficit, capital investment, and oil prices. Positive movements in these indicators strengthen the stability for the balance of payments. The developed cointegration and error correction models reliably capture both short-term and long-term relationships. Short-term shocks from exchange rate and oil price fluctuations are rapidly offset while GDP growth, export expansion, and capital investment bolster long-term stability. Equilibrium, when disrupted by shocks, is restored within 21 months. A comparative analysis of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation reveals structural similarities and differences in external trade and capital flows.</p>

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Cointegration Modeling of Azerbaijan’s Balance of Payments: A Comparative Analysis with the Russian Federation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月20日

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  • N. S. Ayyubova

摘要

Abstract

Our study based on 94 quarterly observations shows that the dynamics in Azerbaijan’s balance of payments depend significantly on imports, exports, GDP, exchange rate, fiscal deficit, capital investment, and oil prices. Positive movements in these indicators strengthen the stability for the balance of payments. The developed cointegration and error correction models reliably capture both short-term and long-term relationships. Short-term shocks from exchange rate and oil price fluctuations are rapidly offset while GDP growth, export expansion, and capital investment bolster long-term stability. Equilibrium, when disrupted by shocks, is restored within 21 months. A comparative analysis of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation reveals structural similarities and differences in external trade and capital flows.