Abstract <p>This article presents a scenario-based approach to forecasting passenger traffic for Russian airlines under sanction restrictions. The methodology integrates a demand model based on GDP and fare elasticity, with an assessment of capacity constrained by fleet attrition and uncertainty in the supply of domestically produced aircraft. Demand and supply are balanced through adjustments to airfare. The distribution of traffic between domestic and international markets is modeled as a function of their relative yield rates. Based on the calculations, a forecast for passenger traffic through 2040 is presented for three scenarios.</p>