Abstract <p>The article is devoted to the analysis of car supplies to the domestic market by main segments, in retrospect and at present. There are four main segments: production of domestic brands, localized production of foreign brands, import of new cars, and import of used cars. The development paths of these segments and their future prospects are analyzed. Based on the analysis of the deficit and ways to close it, an inertial scenario for the development of the Russian automobile market has been formulated for the period up to 2035. It is expected that the deficit in the low-price segment will provide opportunities for the production of domestic brands, and in the midprice segment for the gradual localization of Chinese brands. Scenario 2 has been formulated, taking into account the state of the global market up to 2035, with an emphasis on the possibility of producing cars using new energy sources (hybrids and electric vehicles). Sales volumes by segments are estimated in scenario 1 and domestic production volumes by types of energy used in scenario 2.</p>