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Abstract <p>Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have gained a prominent role in the global practice for assessing the economic effects of climate change. Based on four IAMs adapted by the authors, the economic impact of climate change in Russia until 2060 has been calculated. According to the obtained model calculations, the magnitude of this effect varies widely: from –1.3 trillion to +200 billion rubles by 2040; from –3&#xa0;trillion to +300 billion rubles by 2060 (in 2021 prices). The simplified nature of the IAM methodology that provides for its tendency to reproduce nonlinearly increasing damages implies that the assessment values the abovementioned economic effects of climate change are actually crude numbers. In this regard, these should be perceived primarily with respect to the qualitative interpretation of the emerging outcomes (damage or benefit) and be considered in terms of order of magnitude estimates of the expected damage or benefit, respectively, given the measures to adapt the population and the economy to climate change are missing.</p>

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Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Russian Economy Using Integrated Assessment Models (IAM)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月21日

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  • B. N. Porfiriev,
  • A. Yu. Kolpakov,
  • E. A. Lazeeva

摘要

Abstract

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have gained a prominent role in the global practice for assessing the economic effects of climate change. Based on four IAMs adapted by the authors, the economic impact of climate change in Russia until 2060 has been calculated. According to the obtained model calculations, the magnitude of this effect varies widely: from –1.3 trillion to +200 billion rubles by 2040; from –3 trillion to +300 billion rubles by 2060 (in 2021 prices). The simplified nature of the IAM methodology that provides for its tendency to reproduce nonlinearly increasing damages implies that the assessment values the abovementioned economic effects of climate change are actually crude numbers. In this regard, these should be perceived primarily with respect to the qualitative interpretation of the emerging outcomes (damage or benefit) and be considered in terms of order of magnitude estimates of the expected damage or benefit, respectively, given the measures to adapt the population and the economy to climate change are missing.