Long-Term Assessment of Energy Demand in Russian Passenger Transport in the Context of Low-Carbon Transformation

The article is devoted to the study of the future demand for energy in transport in the context of the transition to a low-carbon development trajectory in accordance with the adopted “Strategy for the long-term development of the Russian Federation with low greenhouse gas emissions until 2050.” The research is based on scenario forecasting and mathematical modeling methods. The results of a forecast assessment of the demand for motor fuel and electricity in passenger transport in Russia as a whole and in federal districts until 2050 have been presented, taking into account: 1) transition of the economy to a low-carbon development model; 2) change in the structure of passenger turnover in favor of less carbon-intensive modes of transport; 3) increase in the energy efficiency and environmental safety of vehicles. The possible consequences of large-scale development of electric transport in Russia in the long term have been given.