The Automotive Market in the New Conditions: Current State and Outlook

The article presents an analysis of key changes in the environment conditions affecting the Russian automotive market on both manufacturer and consumer sides. The impact of the worsening foreign trade conditions, the possibilities of localization and expansion of production within the country, and key factors of influence on consumer demand for cars in the current economic conditions are assessed. Key factors that can be transformed into quantitative indicators are defined. Analytical tools for forecasting motorization rates and car sales are presented. Estimated values of these indicators under different scenarios are provided. It is concluded that certain scenarios imply risks for population mobility and public health; the burden of offsetting these risks may fall on the state. Scenarios in which these risks are avoided also require active state policies.