Potential for the Development of Russian Plastics Production Against the Backdrop of Sanctions: Assessment for the Medium Term

The purpose of this study is to quantify the potential need of the Russian economy for plastics and plastic products in the medium term against the backdrop of sanctions imposed on the country. Modeling was carried out for scenarios of complete and partial loss of imports of plastic products as a result of sanctions and assuming the replacement of these volumes with Russian production. The resulting interval estimates indicate that there are significant needs for import substitution of plastics, which cannot be met only by expanding domestic capacities. It is necessary to search for new suppliers and change the geography of foreign trade in plastics with a focus on countries that have not joined the sanctions policy.