Prospects for Motorization Based on Domestic Electric Vehicles: Analysis and Scenario Forecast

The article is devoted to the analysis of the possibilities of modernizing the automotive industry through the electrification of passenger vehicles. The benefits and risks of such modernization are analyzed, the main factors determining this transition are highlighted, and the necessary transport policy is described. Several scenarios are considered, differing in the degree of electrification development. Forecasting and analytical tools are presented for building prospects for the production of electric vehicles, the required volume of charging infrastructure and the costs for it, as well as the capacity of energy storage devices and the necessary supply of lithium raw materials. The volumes of these indicators are estimated in different scenarios.