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Abstract <p>For hydropower plants (HPPs) located in the second price zone of the Russian wholesale electric power and capacity market, the problem of optimizing expected profit in the capacity market is considered under the assumption that the HPPs will continue operating regardless of the results of the competitive capacity auction, under conditions of uncertainty regarding future water usage regimes and the presence of other random factors that reduce the volume of capacity sales. It is shown that if the probability distributions of the relevant random variables are known to the producer, the set of optimal strategies for HPPs in the competitive capacity auction is non-empty and is determined by the quantiles of these distributions. The results of the analysis are applied to practically significant cases.</p>

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Optimization of Hydropower Plants’ Strategy in Competitive Capacity Auctions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月1日

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  • V. A. Borokhov

摘要

Abstract

For hydropower plants (HPPs) located in the second price zone of the Russian wholesale electric power and capacity market, the problem of optimizing expected profit in the capacity market is considered under the assumption that the HPPs will continue operating regardless of the results of the competitive capacity auction, under conditions of uncertainty regarding future water usage regimes and the presence of other random factors that reduce the volume of capacity sales. It is shown that if the probability distributions of the relevant random variables are known to the producer, the set of optimal strategies for HPPs in the competitive capacity auction is non-empty and is determined by the quantiles of these distributions. The results of the analysis are applied to practically significant cases.