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Abstract <p>By the example of a problem of forecasting daily values of solar activity index, three different approaches to forecasting a time series of the solar activity index were compared: iterations of a single-step model, an independent single-step forecast for each subsequent month, and a single multistep forecast for the entire period. As a model, each approach uses a machine learning model based on a neural network, as well as an auxiliary theoretical series of solutions, which is obtained from a physical model of solar dynamo.</p>

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Comparison of the Single-Step and Multistep Approaches to Forecast of the Solar Activity Index

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月16日

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  • V. Kisielius,
  • E. A. Illarionov,
  • R. A. Stepanov,
  • K. M. Kuzanyan

摘要

Abstract

By the example of a problem of forecasting daily values of solar activity index, three different approaches to forecasting a time series of the solar activity index were compared: iterations of a single-step model, an independent single-step forecast for each subsequent month, and a single multistep forecast for the entire period. As a model, each approach uses a machine learning model based on a neural network, as well as an auxiliary theoretical series of solutions, which is obtained from a physical model of solar dynamo.