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Abstract <p>We propose a complex operational predictor of space weather disturbances. The analysis is based on the data of time series of different types—solar activity in the radio and gamma ranges, the solar wind energy, and variations in the flux of cosmic rays according to the data of the world network of neutron monitors and the muon hodoscope—examined with the method of flicker-noise spectroscopy. This approach was tested in the analysis of a powerful geomagnetic disturbance (<i>Dst</i> = –412 nT). The sequence of predictors has been obtained in real time within a range from 2–3 days to several hours.</p>

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Analysis of Geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejections in the Flux of the Solar Wind and Cosmic Rays at Ground Level on May 10–12, 2024

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月1日

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  • V. V. Borog,
  • I. I. Astapov,
  • N. S. Barbashina,
  • Yu. N. Mishutina,
  • V. V. Shutenko

摘要

Abstract

We propose a complex operational predictor of space weather disturbances. The analysis is based on the data of time series of different types—solar activity in the radio and gamma ranges, the solar wind energy, and variations in the flux of cosmic rays according to the data of the world network of neutron monitors and the muon hodoscope—examined with the method of flicker-noise spectroscopy. This approach was tested in the analysis of a powerful geomagnetic disturbance (Dst = –412 nT). The sequence of predictors has been obtained in real time within a range from 2–3 days to several hours.