Evaluation of the Influence of Human Activity on the Spatio-Temporal Distribution Patterns of Large Carnivores Using Camera Traps in the Central Forest Nature Reserve (West-European Russia)

The possibilities for assessing the impact of human activity on mammals using camera traps are demonstrated in Russia for the first time, three species of large carnivores taken as examples: the brown bear (Ursus arctos), the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), and the gray wolf (Canis lupus). To do this, a single-season species-level occupancy analysis and an analysis of daily activity were utilized. This study was carried out in 2022 on the territory of the Southern Forestry of the Central Forest Nature Reserve, in western European Russia during the period of maximum human activity (July–August). The relative abundance indices of pedestrians, all-terrain vehicles, and the distance to villages were used as variables. The maximum predicted occupancy was found for the lynx (ψ = 0.97), while the minimum was found for the wolf (ψ = 0.78). Detection probability was the highest for the brown bear (p = 0.18), in contrast to both lynx and wolf (0.08 each). For the lynx and the brown bear, large degrees of overlap of daily activities with pedestrians ( \({{\hat {\Delta }}_{4}}\) = 0.57 and \({{\hat {\Delta }}_{4}}\) = 0.47) and all-terrain vehicles ( \({{\hat {\Delta }}_{4}}\) = 0.51 and \({{\hat {\Delta }}_{4}}\) = 0.41) were noted, in contrast to those for the wolf ( \({{\hat {\Delta }}_{1}}\) = 0.37 and \({{\hat {\Delta }}_{1}}\)  = 0.35, respectively). Human activity had no noticeable effect on either the spatial or temporal distribution patterns of the brown bear and lynx. In contrast, the wolf showed a shift in both patterns away from human activity. The combined use of occupancy and daily activity analyses based on data from camera traps is the optimal method for assessing and regulating human activity in particularly strictly protected natural areas.