Abstract <p>Global warming and climate change are increasingly posing significant threats to plant species worldwide, especially those with wide distributions. <i>Paulownia tomentosa</i>, a cosmopolitan plant species with a broad range in Europe, offers substantial ecological and economic benefits. In this study, we assessed the current and future distribution of <i>P. tomentosa</i> using species distribution modeling (SDM). Nineteen climate variables and three future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were utilized, representing different greenhouse gas emission trajectories to explore the impacts of climate change on the species’ distribution. Our findings indicate that the distribution of <i>P. tomentosa</i> is primarily influenced by key climatic factors, including precipitation during the driest period, isothermality, and annual average temperature. These variables significantly shape the suitable habitats and overall distribution patterns of the species. Notably, we project a considerable loss of vegetation in several regions of Western Europe due to climate change, with <i>P.&#xa0;tomentosa</i> becoming more concentrated in the northern parts of Western Europe, such as Ireland, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Denmark. Even under the most optimistic climate scenario (RCP2.6), approximately 263,816 km² of suitable land may face habitat loss, with the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5) potentially increasing this figure to 380,149 km². In the RCP4.5 scenario, the loss would amount to 136,040&#xa0;km² by 2050 and increase to 263,816 km² by 2070. Our study provides valuable insights for guiding conservation strategies to protect the habitats of <i>P. tomentosa</i> by understanding how climate change may alter its distribution. These findings can aid in developing targeted conservation efforts to mitigate habitat loss and ensure the long-term survival of <i>P. tomentosa</i> populations.</p>