Scenario Modeling Based on Fuzzy Relational Temporal Cognitive Models

Fuzzy relational temporal cognitive models and a scenario modeling method based on their use are described, which includes building the structure of a fuzzy relational temporal cognitive model and its structural adjustment, selection of scenario dynamics models for all concepts, parametric setting; setting modeling scenarios, and modeling based on a trained model in accordance with a given scenario. An example of using the proposed method for scenario modeling of the distribution of electrical load for consumers of the regional energy subsystem is considered.