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Abstract <p>A strategy for predictive empirical–statistical modeling of forest ecosystems as objects of terrestrial geosystem monitoring is presented. Local mechanisms of global changes are revealed through an empirically established display of the background bioclimatic trend by a catenary system of biogeocoenoses. Regional structures of localized natural zonality capable of simulating the main directions and scales of geo(eco-)system restructurings are considered. The landscape–ecological forecast is described as a system of operations with ecological (hydrothermal) niches of the objects studied. Empirical simulation of forecasts is implemented as a reproduction of predicted scenarios of biogeocoenotic systems according to the laws of their basic spatial organization, with the spatial coordinates replaced by time coordinates in the forecast procedure, in accordance with the fundamental properties of ergodicity of the natural environment.</p>

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Empirical Simulation Forecasting Models of Functional Organization of Forest Ecosystems under Global Climate Change (Framework Concept)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月13日

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  • E. G. Kolomyts

摘要

Abstract

A strategy for predictive empirical–statistical modeling of forest ecosystems as objects of terrestrial geosystem monitoring is presented. Local mechanisms of global changes are revealed through an empirically established display of the background bioclimatic trend by a catenary system of biogeocoenoses. Regional structures of localized natural zonality capable of simulating the main directions and scales of geo(eco-)system restructurings are considered. The landscape–ecological forecast is described as a system of operations with ecological (hydrothermal) niches of the objects studied. Empirical simulation of forecasts is implemented as a reproduction of predicted scenarios of biogeocoenotic systems according to the laws of their basic spatial organization, with the spatial coordinates replaced by time coordinates in the forecast procedure, in accordance with the fundamental properties of ergodicity of the natural environment.