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Abstract <p>The Yellow River Basin serves as a critical ecological barrier in China, with soil and water conservation being the primary focus of ecological protection. Despite significant achievements from comprehensive measures by the Chinese government, future runoff (sediment) trend and meteorological droughts remain uncertain due to complex environmental conditions, which are key issues for regional water resource management. Using climate and land use change data with the SWAT model, 9 scenario combinations were constructed to project spatial-temporal runoff and sediment evolution, meteorological drought characteristics, and the contributions of environmental factors in the Fen River Basin. Future projections indicate a warmer and more humid climate with annual precipitation increase of 108 mm, and temperature rise of 2–6°C. The frequency of dry in the basin from 2061 to 2100 is significantly lower than that from 2020 to 2060, while the wet frequency presents the opposite. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 scenarios, runoff and sediment increase progressively with higher emissions. The ecological protection scenario shows the highest runoff and sediment. In the farmland protection scenario, runoff is lower than in the natural development scenario, while sediment is higher. Climate change dominates upstream hydrological processes, with the contribution more than 78.00%. The effects of land use and climate change in midstream are basically equal. Land use change plays a decisive role in downstream runoff reduction, while future climate governs the sediment increase. The findings could offer theoretical support for addressing climate change and managing water resource disasters.</p>

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Evolution of Hydrological Characteristics in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River: Indications for Basin Drought and Flood Risks

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月4日

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  • Jinfeng Wang,
  • Lixing Zhang,
  • Xue Wang,
  • Sheng Wang,
  • Qing Li,
  • Xuman Jiang

摘要

Abstract

The Yellow River Basin serves as a critical ecological barrier in China, with soil and water conservation being the primary focus of ecological protection. Despite significant achievements from comprehensive measures by the Chinese government, future runoff (sediment) trend and meteorological droughts remain uncertain due to complex environmental conditions, which are key issues for regional water resource management. Using climate and land use change data with the SWAT model, 9 scenario combinations were constructed to project spatial-temporal runoff and sediment evolution, meteorological drought characteristics, and the contributions of environmental factors in the Fen River Basin. Future projections indicate a warmer and more humid climate with annual precipitation increase of 108 mm, and temperature rise of 2–6°C. The frequency of dry in the basin from 2061 to 2100 is significantly lower than that from 2020 to 2060, while the wet frequency presents the opposite. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 scenarios, runoff and sediment increase progressively with higher emissions. The ecological protection scenario shows the highest runoff and sediment. In the farmland protection scenario, runoff is lower than in the natural development scenario, while sediment is higher. Climate change dominates upstream hydrological processes, with the contribution more than 78.00%. The effects of land use and climate change in midstream are basically equal. Land use change plays a decisive role in downstream runoff reduction, while future climate governs the sediment increase. The findings could offer theoretical support for addressing climate change and managing water resource disasters.