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Abstract <p>Possible scenarios of climate change impact on hydrodynamic processes in the estuaries of the Northern Dvina, Onega, and Pechora are considered. For this purpose, hydrodynamic models of estuarine areas previously developed by the authors in the STREAM 2D, HEC-RAS, and Delft3D software packages were used, for which various variants of sea level changes obtained from the global climate models GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CM5A-LR, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM-CHEM were set as the lower boundary condition. As the upper boundary conditions, water discharges in the outlet sections of river basins, calculated using the ECOMAG runoff formation model for conditions of changed climate, based on the data of the same climate models were set. Based on ensemble simulations, two main trends in changes in estuarine hydrodynamic factors were identified and analyzed: the sea level rise and the river runoff decrease. Scenarios of spring floods and summer–autumn low water seasons corresponding to different combinations of boundary conditions for the historical period are modeled, as well as for the most probable and most unfavorable hydrometeorological conditions of the mid-21st century. Possible changes in the flow characteristics and their impact on various aspects of hydroecological safety and the use of water resources in the estuarial areas under the study have been analyzed.</p>

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Modeling of Hydrodynamic Processes of the Estuaries of the European Part of the Russian Arctic under Possible Climate Changes

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月1日

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  • I. N. Krylenko,
  • S. V. Lebedeva,
  • E. D. Panchenko,
  • A. M. Alabyan

摘要

Abstract

Possible scenarios of climate change impact on hydrodynamic processes in the estuaries of the Northern Dvina, Onega, and Pechora are considered. For this purpose, hydrodynamic models of estuarine areas previously developed by the authors in the STREAM 2D, HEC-RAS, and Delft3D software packages were used, for which various variants of sea level changes obtained from the global climate models GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CM5A-LR, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM-CHEM were set as the lower boundary condition. As the upper boundary conditions, water discharges in the outlet sections of river basins, calculated using the ECOMAG runoff formation model for conditions of changed climate, based on the data of the same climate models were set. Based on ensemble simulations, two main trends in changes in estuarine hydrodynamic factors were identified and analyzed: the sea level rise and the river runoff decrease. Scenarios of spring floods and summer–autumn low water seasons corresponding to different combinations of boundary conditions for the historical period are modeled, as well as for the most probable and most unfavorable hydrometeorological conditions of the mid-21st century. Possible changes in the flow characteristics and their impact on various aspects of hydroecological safety and the use of water resources in the estuarial areas under the study have been analyzed.