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<b>Abstract</b>— <p>We propose a method for predicting future collisions of asteroids with the Earth. To determine the true positions of the nodes in a heliocentric coordinate system for elliptical orbits, we developed a special algorithm. The evolution of orbits of the asteroid Apophis and the Earth was studied over a time interval of September 2023 to June 2029. The intersection zones for the orbits of Apophis and the Earth were plotted for the time interval considered. The number of intersection zones was determined at 135. We show that the simultaneous entry of Apophis and the Earth into one of these zones will lead to their inevitable collision. The relative positions of Apophis and the Earth with respect to these zones were analyzed. The most dangerous zones of intersection of the orbits of Apophis and the Earth were identified. We demonstrate how a close approach of Apophis to the Earth on April 13, 2029, can influence the formation of intersection zones.</p>

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Potential Collisions of the Asteroid Apophis with the Earth during a Period of 2023 to 2029

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月1日

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  • A. F. Zausaev,
  • M. A. Romanyuk

摘要

Abstract—

We propose a method for predicting future collisions of asteroids with the Earth. To determine the true positions of the nodes in a heliocentric coordinate system for elliptical orbits, we developed a special algorithm. The evolution of orbits of the asteroid Apophis and the Earth was studied over a time interval of September 2023 to June 2029. The intersection zones for the orbits of Apophis and the Earth were plotted for the time interval considered. The number of intersection zones was determined at 135. We show that the simultaneous entry of Apophis and the Earth into one of these zones will lead to their inevitable collision. The relative positions of Apophis and the Earth with respect to these zones were analyzed. The most dangerous zones of intersection of the orbits of Apophis and the Earth were identified. We demonstrate how a close approach of Apophis to the Earth on April 13, 2029, can influence the formation of intersection zones.