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<b>Abstract</b>— <p>We constructed a scenario for the formation of the young Emilkowalski asteroid family based on numerical modeling of the probabilistic evolution of the orbits of the family members. Various variants of the orbital evolution of asteroids were considered depending on the drift rate of the semimajor axes of the orbits, caused by the influence of the diurnal the Yarkovsky effect. We estimated the time of possible formation of pairs of family members in accordance with the preliminary scenario of cascade fragmentation of the parent body of the asteroid (14627) Emilkowalski based on the analysis of the moments of reaching the minimum of the Kholshevnikov metric and the convergence of the nodes and pericenters of the orbits. The moments of pair formation were clarified, the order of disintegration of the parent body was adjusted. We confirmed the scenario of the formation of the Emilkowalski family as a result of the step-by-step destruction of the parent body of the asteroid (14627) Emilkowalski with elements of cascade disintegration of some fragments. It was concluded that the age of the family does not exceed 1.8 Myr.</p>

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Emilkowalski Family Formation Scenario Based on Modeling of the Probabilistic Evolution of Asteroid Orbits

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月27日

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  • E. D. Kuznetsov,
  • A. S. Perminov,
  • V. S. Safronova

摘要

Abstract—

We constructed a scenario for the formation of the young Emilkowalski asteroid family based on numerical modeling of the probabilistic evolution of the orbits of the family members. Various variants of the orbital evolution of asteroids were considered depending on the drift rate of the semimajor axes of the orbits, caused by the influence of the diurnal the Yarkovsky effect. We estimated the time of possible formation of pairs of family members in accordance with the preliminary scenario of cascade fragmentation of the parent body of the asteroid (14627) Emilkowalski based on the analysis of the moments of reaching the minimum of the Kholshevnikov metric and the convergence of the nodes and pericenters of the orbits. The moments of pair formation were clarified, the order of disintegration of the parent body was adjusted. We confirmed the scenario of the formation of the Emilkowalski family as a result of the step-by-step destruction of the parent body of the asteroid (14627) Emilkowalski with elements of cascade disintegration of some fragments. It was concluded that the age of the family does not exceed 1.8 Myr.