Modeling Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections to Near-Earth Orbit Using Coronal Dimming Parameters

The paper demonstrates results of modeling arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CME) to near-Earth space with parameters of coronal dimmings in 2010–2018. We use drag-based model (DBM) for CME propagation and empirical model for quasi-stationary solar wind streams. We compared the ICME arrival time and speed forecast for events with coronal source in the central region of the solar disk based on the CME initial speed using (1) CACTus database; (2) dimming maximum intensity drop from Solar Demon database to calculate the initial speed of the CME. Results show that the methods result in similar errors. To study the possibility of predicting ICME, for which a CME may not be observed in the coronagraph for some reason, modeling of ICME was carried out using dimming parameters. In 43% of cases, ICME arrival time were forecasted with an accuracy of 24 h using parameters of dimmings in the central region of solar disk that could not be associated with any CMEs.