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Abstract <p>The activation of thermokarst processes under the influence of global warming in recent decades has been observed almost everywhere in the permafrost zone. Numerous studies have been devoted to examine of these processes, with particular attention paid to the quantitative patterns of thermokarst lakes and their dynamics. The aim of this study is to analyze the dynamics of thermokarst lakes and assess their quantitative characteristics using satellite imagery, as well as the relationship between thermokarst lake dynamics and climate change. The study was conducted using the Yana-Indigirka Lowland in northern Yakutia as an example, based on a series of Corona, Landsat-7, and Sentinel-2 satellite images for six observation periods: 1966, 1976, 1999, 2007, 2013, and 2021, as well as the ArcticDEM digital elevation model (2 m/px). A total of 248 lakes and 303 alases were identified in the study area, and the lakes were classified into six main classes based on their type and location. The study reveals an overall increase in the area and number of lakes, with lake dynamics varying in different directions. Residual lakes within alases show a consistent trend of decreasing area, while thermokarst lakes within alases grew in 1976 and 2007, with a decrease in overall area in the remaining years. In 1999 and 2013, lake areas increased by 3.1 and 20%, respectively, with a slight decrease in area observed in the remaining years. The total number of lakes increased by 90 by 2021, and an increase in residual lakes within alases is also observed, indicating the drainage of thermokarst lakes. The study also shows an increase in the number of new lakes within and outside alases, excluding the number of residual lakes formed as a result of breakup of a large lake into smaller ones. The appearance of new alases was noted in 1976, 2013, and 2021, indicating the drainage of some lakes and a decrease in overall area. An analysis of temperature anomalies shows a general increase after 1999, and from this same period onwards, the number and area of lakes began to increase.</p>

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Analysis of the Dynamics of Lake Thermokarst Activation for 1966–2021 (Case Study of the Yana-Indigirka Swampy Lowland)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月1日

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  • T. V. Orlov,
  • V. V. Bondar,
  • M. V. Arkhipova

摘要

Abstract

The activation of thermokarst processes under the influence of global warming in recent decades has been observed almost everywhere in the permafrost zone. Numerous studies have been devoted to examine of these processes, with particular attention paid to the quantitative patterns of thermokarst lakes and their dynamics. The aim of this study is to analyze the dynamics of thermokarst lakes and assess their quantitative characteristics using satellite imagery, as well as the relationship between thermokarst lake dynamics and climate change. The study was conducted using the Yana-Indigirka Lowland in northern Yakutia as an example, based on a series of Corona, Landsat-7, and Sentinel-2 satellite images for six observation periods: 1966, 1976, 1999, 2007, 2013, and 2021, as well as the ArcticDEM digital elevation model (2 m/px). A total of 248 lakes and 303 alases were identified in the study area, and the lakes were classified into six main classes based on their type and location. The study reveals an overall increase in the area and number of lakes, with lake dynamics varying in different directions. Residual lakes within alases show a consistent trend of decreasing area, while thermokarst lakes within alases grew in 1976 and 2007, with a decrease in overall area in the remaining years. In 1999 and 2013, lake areas increased by 3.1 and 20%, respectively, with a slight decrease in area observed in the remaining years. The total number of lakes increased by 90 by 2021, and an increase in residual lakes within alases is also observed, indicating the drainage of thermokarst lakes. The study also shows an increase in the number of new lakes within and outside alases, excluding the number of residual lakes formed as a result of breakup of a large lake into smaller ones. The appearance of new alases was noted in 1976, 2013, and 2021, indicating the drainage of some lakes and a decrease in overall area. An analysis of temperature anomalies shows a general increase after 1999, and from this same period onwards, the number and area of lakes began to increase.