Study of Changes in the Concentration of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere in the Ural Region Based on Reanalysis and Satellite Measurements: Part 1. Spatiotemporal Variations in Concentrations of CO2 and CH4
摘要
This paper considers spatiotemporal variations in the atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations near the surface based on the CAMS reanalysis data and GOSAT satellite measurements in the Ural Federal District (UFD) for 2010–2021. The uncertainty of the data is estimated. The total uncertainty of CO2 and CH4 concentrations is primarily due to the uncertainty of ground-based measurements. The CAMS reanalysis data most accurately reflect the results of ground-based CO2 concentration measurements. On average, they overestimate these data by 0.59 ± 0.102 ppm. At the same time, the CH4 concentration values obtained on the basis of reanalysis are, on average, 71.57 ± 4.04 ppb lower compared to the results of ground-based measurements. In contrast, the results of GOSAT satellite measurements are in good agreement with the data of ground-based measurements of CH4 concentration. On average, they show overestimated values by 4.68 ± 4.05 ppb, while for carbon dioxide CO2 there is an underestimation of 3.51 ± 0.104 ppm. An analysis of the spatial distribution of interannual changes showed that, in some years, there is a significant annual increase in the concentration of CO2 and CH4 in the eastern and northeastern parts of the Ural Federal District reaching values of 16 ppm and 90 ppb, respectively. Particularly high values are recorded in the hot season, when the air temperature exceeds 15°C. According to reanalysis, in Tyumen oblast and the Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets autonomous okrugs, the maximum values of methane CH4 concentration during the year are observed in July–August and exceed the values in the winter. A sharp increase in CO2 concentration was established for the entire territory of the Urals Federal District in 2012 and 2016. For CH4, a sharp increase in concentration occurred in 2012, 2016, and 2019.