Scholarlink

Abstract <p>Quantitative estimates of the contributions of anthropogenic impacts (characterized by changes in the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere) and variations in solar activity to the trends of global surface temperature (GST) on secular temporal horizons are obtained from simulations with climate models of the CMIP6 ensemble in comparison with corresponding estimates based on the analysis of long-term observational data since the 19th century using autoregressive models. The results for simulations with climate models characterized by low, medium, and high temperature sensitivity to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> content in the atmosphere are compared. It is found, in particular, that empirical estimates revealing the determinative contribution of the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the GST trends on half-century and century-long time intervals are most consistent with the estimates from simulations with the INM-CM4-8 climate model of the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), with the lowest sensitivity of GST to doubling the CO<sub>2</sub> content in the atmosphere.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Contributions of Greenhouse Gases and Solar Activity to Global Surface Temperature Trends from CMIP6 Simulations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月1日

查看全文
  • I. I. Mokhov,
  • D. A. Smirnov

摘要

Abstract

Quantitative estimates of the contributions of anthropogenic impacts (characterized by changes in the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere) and variations in solar activity to the trends of global surface temperature (GST) on secular temporal horizons are obtained from simulations with climate models of the CMIP6 ensemble in comparison with corresponding estimates based on the analysis of long-term observational data since the 19th century using autoregressive models. The results for simulations with climate models characterized by low, medium, and high temperature sensitivity to changes in CO2 content in the atmosphere are compared. It is found, in particular, that empirical estimates revealing the determinative contribution of the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the GST trends on half-century and century-long time intervals are most consistent with the estimates from simulations with the INM-CM4-8 climate model of the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS), with the lowest sensitivity of GST to doubling the CO2 content in the atmosphere.