Zero-Carbon Russia: Is There a Chance to Achieve Climate Neutrality by 2060?

This article examines the prospects for reducing the carbon intensity of the Russian economy and the possibility of achieving climate neutrality of the national economy by 2060. Based on the historical–extrapolation approach to the study of the development of various sociotechnical systems and by comparing them with the dynamics of carbon indicators of the economies of the world’s leading countries, it is shown that full compensation for anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by absorption by the biosphere (primarily forests) is possible today only theoretically. The condition for this is the implementation of extremely ambitious large-scale programs for reforming all sectors of the national economy, from energy to forestry. Thus, in the optimistic scenario, the rate of reduction of specific indicators of GHG emissions per capita should be the maximum values achieved in the world over the past 50 years, 1% per year, and forest management should include full compensation for increasing logging and a 50% reduction in forest losses from fires, which are currently the second (after energy) source of GHG emissions into the atmosphere. The most likely scenario is one with a rate of reduction of specific GHG emissions per capita of 0.5%/year and a moderate increase in the absorption capacity of forests mainly due to the implementation of forest climate projects and a reduction in wildfire emissions. If the latter scenario is implemented, net GHG emissions could amount to approximately 700 Mt CO_2eq by 2060, which will require a national carbon capture and storage industry of unprecedented scale to achieve climate neutrality.