Post-Agricultural Ecosystems of the Chinese Loess Plateau and the Central Russian Plain as Carbon Sinks in 2025–2065: Evidence from CMIP6 Model Projections

The carbon sinks formed as a result of revegetation of the Loess Plateau and the Russian Plain may contribute to achieving carbon neutrality if they are resilient to the impact of climate change. We employ CMIP6 model runs under SSP5-8.5 scenario for assessing response of these sinks to adverse changes in climatic conditions. The average annual net ecosystem production (NEP) for the period of 2025–2065 is assessed from the monthly times series of NEP calculated by five CMIP6 models. We found that those average annual NEP values for the period of 2025–2065 were positive everywhere within the Chinese Loess Plateau and within the central and northern parts of the Russian Plain. Negative values were obtained for the southern part of the Russian Plain just using one of the five models. The results of our study suggest that even under the SSP5-8.5 scenario it is not unlikely that the Chinese Loess Plateau and the Russian Plain will not be exposed to changes in climatic conditions under which NEP may become negative in 2025–2065. This means that it is feasible to manage post-agricultural ecosystems in a way that ensures resilience of their carbon sequestration potential in a changing climate.