Extreme Wind Speeds in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic: Statistics and Circulation Models

Extreme wind speeds over the Greenland, Norwegian, and Barents seas, as well as over adjacent land, have been studied using the ERA5 database. It is shown that the probability distribution function (PDF) is described by the Weibull distribution. However, the largest and rarest values deviate greatly from this law (for this reason they are figuratively called “dragons”): the differences can exceed 10 m/s. Dragons are associated with cyclones that develop during the cold season on the Arctic front. Less powerful extremes that obey the Weibull distribution (“black swans”) are associated with the same kind of cyclones. It turns out that these situations cannot be separated based on frontal analysis. In a few cases, the polar laws are detected in those regions where the most powerful extreme winds are observed.