Evaluating strategies to increase PET bottle recycling in the United States

In the United States, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle collection rates have not increased in a decade. Recycling rates remain abysmal while industry commitments and policy targets escalate the demand for recycled plastics. We investigate the PET bottle recycling system, where collection is a critical bottleneck and recycled PET supply is not meeting the expected demand. We characterize demand for recycled PET (R-PET), analyze scenarios of expanding deposit return systems (DRS), and quantify cost barriers to improving PET bottle recycling. We find that a nation-wide DRS can increase PET bottle recycling rates from 24% to 82%, supplying approximately 2700 kt of recycled PET annually. With stability in demand, we estimate that this PET bottle recycling system can achieve 65% bottle-to-bottle circularity, at a net cost of 360 USD/tonne of PET recycled. We also discuss environmental impacts, stakeholder implications, producer responsibility, and complimentary policies toward an efficient and effective recycling system.