Not just about Ukraine: Russia’s invasion as the final nail in the arms control coffin?
摘要
Since the beginning of Russia’s full-blown invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, nuclear weapons have re-gained central stage in transatlantic security. Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in nuclear saber-rattling, and dealt the arms control regime that helped temper the Cold War two crippling blows. First, he suspended Russia’s participation in the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). Then he withdrew from the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE). This widened cracks in the international arms control regime that had already emerged, notably U.S. withdrawal in 2002 from the 1972 ABM Treaty, the emergence of new nuclear actors, such as India and Pakistan, and the collapse of the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-range and Shorter-range missiles (INF) in 2019. This article analyzes the interplay between the erosion of major arms control treaties and the Ukraine War, together with the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on vertical proliferation.