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<p>In recent years, the spatial dynamics of mangrove ecosystems in China have exhibited a complex pattern of both restoration and degradation, reflecting the multifaceted and spatiotemporally heterogeneous impacts of human activities, yet these dynamics remain insufficiently understood. This study employs city-level panel data from 2003 to 2023 to investigate how coastal urban activities influence mangrove ecosystems across four dimensions: socioeconomic pressure, marine industrial development, pollution load and environmental governance, and ecosystem status. Using fixed effects models, spatiotemporal heterogeneity models, and moderation models, we identify the evolving impact mechanisms of urban coastal activities on mangroves, with particular attention to the moderating role of environmental protection investment. The empirical results reveal that industrial pollution and habitat fragmentation significantly suppress mangrove area. However, environmental protection investment plays a crucial moderating role in mitigating the negative impacts of marine industrial expansion, highlighting the irreplaceability of environmental governance to foster ecological–economic synergies. Regionally, the Pearl River Delta exhibits a pronounced negative effect from marine economic activities, whereas Guangxi demonstrates a strong moderating influence from environmental investment, resulting in an overall positive impact of urban activity factors. These findings offer robust empirical support for enhancing environmental governance and industrial restructuring in coastal cities, and provide theoretical and policy insights for developing resilience-oriented sustainable development strategies.</p>

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Impact mechanisms and policy regulation of human socioeconomic activities on mangrove evolution in China’s coastal cities

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月29日

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  • Siyang She,
  • Jianghao Xu,
  • Jihong Chen,
  • Hao Chen

摘要

In recent years, the spatial dynamics of mangrove ecosystems in China have exhibited a complex pattern of both restoration and degradation, reflecting the multifaceted and spatiotemporally heterogeneous impacts of human activities, yet these dynamics remain insufficiently understood. This study employs city-level panel data from 2003 to 2023 to investigate how coastal urban activities influence mangrove ecosystems across four dimensions: socioeconomic pressure, marine industrial development, pollution load and environmental governance, and ecosystem status. Using fixed effects models, spatiotemporal heterogeneity models, and moderation models, we identify the evolving impact mechanisms of urban coastal activities on mangroves, with particular attention to the moderating role of environmental protection investment. The empirical results reveal that industrial pollution and habitat fragmentation significantly suppress mangrove area. However, environmental protection investment plays a crucial moderating role in mitigating the negative impacts of marine industrial expansion, highlighting the irreplaceability of environmental governance to foster ecological–economic synergies. Regionally, the Pearl River Delta exhibits a pronounced negative effect from marine economic activities, whereas Guangxi demonstrates a strong moderating influence from environmental investment, resulting in an overall positive impact of urban activity factors. These findings offer robust empirical support for enhancing environmental governance and industrial restructuring in coastal cities, and provide theoretical and policy insights for developing resilience-oriented sustainable development strategies.