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<p>Climate change threatens agricultural sustainability and rural livelihoods in Punjab, Pakistan’s primary grain-producing region. Wheat, maize, and rice systems face increasing risks from floods, heatwaves, droughts, and soil erosion. This study investigates grain growers’ perceptions of climate risks, adaptation strategies, and the demographic, capital, agricultural, and perceptual factors influencing adaptation decisions using a survey of 540 grain growers across four districts selected via multistage random sampling. Binary logistic regression analysis examined factors determining technological and socio-economic adaptations. Results reveal that floods, heatwaves, and rainfall variability are perceived as critical risks, shaping diverse adaptation responses. Common adaptation strategies include adjusting planting dates (42%), modifying crop varieties (36.9%), diversifying income through off-farm jobs (38.5%) and migration (20.4%), crop insurance (37.4%), and reliance on religious coping mechanisms (40.9%). Rice growers exhibit more diverse and frequent adaptation than wheat and maize growers. Demographic factors, including age and education, played a key role in adaptation decisions. Older grain growers were more inclined to adopt soil conservation and religious coping, whereas educated growers were more likely to seek off-farm employment. Capital factors, such as larger land size and access to machinery, facilitated the adoption of insurance and water conservation practices but led to a decrease in traditional soil management techniques. Among the agricultural factors, livestock ownership positively influenced the construction of shades and shelters and negatively influenced water conservation practices. Grain growers’ perceptions of environmental hazards, particularly flooding and temperature variability, significantly influence their decisions to migrate, obtain insurance, and engage in religious coping. The study emphasizes the importance of integrated policy interventions that improve climate information dissemination, enhance access to financial and technological resources, and consider socio-cultural contexts to foster resilient and sustainable agricultural systems in Pakistan under climate change.</p>

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Adapting to climate change: drivers of technological and socio-economic adaptation strategies among Punjab’s grain growers

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月11日

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  • Syed Ali Asghar Shah,
  • Cheng Jiejing,
  • Imran Haider

摘要

Climate change threatens agricultural sustainability and rural livelihoods in Punjab, Pakistan’s primary grain-producing region. Wheat, maize, and rice systems face increasing risks from floods, heatwaves, droughts, and soil erosion. This study investigates grain growers’ perceptions of climate risks, adaptation strategies, and the demographic, capital, agricultural, and perceptual factors influencing adaptation decisions using a survey of 540 grain growers across four districts selected via multistage random sampling. Binary logistic regression analysis examined factors determining technological and socio-economic adaptations. Results reveal that floods, heatwaves, and rainfall variability are perceived as critical risks, shaping diverse adaptation responses. Common adaptation strategies include adjusting planting dates (42%), modifying crop varieties (36.9%), diversifying income through off-farm jobs (38.5%) and migration (20.4%), crop insurance (37.4%), and reliance on religious coping mechanisms (40.9%). Rice growers exhibit more diverse and frequent adaptation than wheat and maize growers. Demographic factors, including age and education, played a key role in adaptation decisions. Older grain growers were more inclined to adopt soil conservation and religious coping, whereas educated growers were more likely to seek off-farm employment. Capital factors, such as larger land size and access to machinery, facilitated the adoption of insurance and water conservation practices but led to a decrease in traditional soil management techniques. Among the agricultural factors, livestock ownership positively influenced the construction of shades and shelters and negatively influenced water conservation practices. Grain growers’ perceptions of environmental hazards, particularly flooding and temperature variability, significantly influence their decisions to migrate, obtain insurance, and engage in religious coping. The study emphasizes the importance of integrated policy interventions that improve climate information dissemination, enhance access to financial and technological resources, and consider socio-cultural contexts to foster resilient and sustainable agricultural systems in Pakistan under climate change.