What do voters want? Development in social sectors and electoral outcomes in Ghana
摘要
How does social development shape elections in low-income countries? Using the Ghana District League data and Ghana’s elections data, we estimate the effect of social development on electoral outcomes of incumbent and opposition presidential candidates in Ghana. Generally, our fixed effect regression results show provision of social development in an election year do not affect electoral outcomes. However, providing social services years before elections have significant positive and negative effects on the vote shares of incumbent and opposition presidential candidates, respectively. Specifically, social development positively influences the vote shares of incumbent and negatively influences the vote share of opposition presidential candidates. Lastly, these effects originate from safe constituencies of political candidates, as social developments do not affect electoral outcomes in swing constituencies. These results suggest that the era where elected political officers embark on development projects during election years to win votes may soon be over.