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<p>Climate change and sea-level rise are increasing flood risks in coastal urban areas, including those in Vietnam. Hai Phong city, one of Vietnam’s most important coastal urban areas, has suffered significant impacts from frequent flooding caused by rising sea levels and rapid urbanisation. This study examines the level of flood risk. It identifies gaps in Hai Phong’s adaptive capacity by analysing empirical data from two sea-level monitoring stations (Hon Dau and Bach Long Vi, 2014–2023), the Vulnerability Index (VI), the Flood Risk Index (FRI), and an institutional SWOT analysis. This mixed-methods approach provides a novel integration of quantitative spatial risk assessment with qualitative governance analysis, addressing a critical research gap in the region. The findings suggest a relatively high level of vulnerability (VI = 4.0/5) and a high indicative flood risk (FRI = 0.61), particularly in coastal areas, inner-city zones, and peri-urban transition regions. The analysis reveals that the high risk is not only due to environmental exposure with a sea-level rise trend of +3.56 cm/decade, but is significantly exacerbated by socio-institutional factors. These include substantial limitations in local adaptive capacity, particularly regarding institutional silos, fragmented planning, and the lack of intersectoral coordination. Bearing this in mind, the study draws on successful adaptation models from Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand, as well as domestic lessons from Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang, highlighting the effectiveness of integrated policies that combine structural and non-structural measures, community participation, and intersectoral coordination. These lessons may support Hai Phong in developing a flexible, spatially and temporally adaptive action road map that integrates risk management into urban planning and governance, thereby enhancing resilience and promoting sustainable development in the face of escalating climate change impacts. The findings provide essential, evidence-based insights to assist regional and national policymakers in Vietnam in formulating integrated, socially informed adaptation strategies that effectively bridge the gap between technical interventions and governance capacity.</p>

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Flood risk under sea-level rise and lessons on adaptation policies in coastal urban management: a case study in Hai Phong City, Vietnam

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月1日

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  • Bui Thi Ngoc Lan,
  • Nguyen Manh Hung,
  • Dao Truong Thanh,
  • Dinh Tuan Hai

摘要

Climate change and sea-level rise are increasing flood risks in coastal urban areas, including those in Vietnam. Hai Phong city, one of Vietnam’s most important coastal urban areas, has suffered significant impacts from frequent flooding caused by rising sea levels and rapid urbanisation. This study examines the level of flood risk. It identifies gaps in Hai Phong’s adaptive capacity by analysing empirical data from two sea-level monitoring stations (Hon Dau and Bach Long Vi, 2014–2023), the Vulnerability Index (VI), the Flood Risk Index (FRI), and an institutional SWOT analysis. This mixed-methods approach provides a novel integration of quantitative spatial risk assessment with qualitative governance analysis, addressing a critical research gap in the region. The findings suggest a relatively high level of vulnerability (VI = 4.0/5) and a high indicative flood risk (FRI = 0.61), particularly in coastal areas, inner-city zones, and peri-urban transition regions. The analysis reveals that the high risk is not only due to environmental exposure with a sea-level rise trend of +3.56 cm/decade, but is significantly exacerbated by socio-institutional factors. These include substantial limitations in local adaptive capacity, particularly regarding institutional silos, fragmented planning, and the lack of intersectoral coordination. Bearing this in mind, the study draws on successful adaptation models from Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand, as well as domestic lessons from Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang, highlighting the effectiveness of integrated policies that combine structural and non-structural measures, community participation, and intersectoral coordination. These lessons may support Hai Phong in developing a flexible, spatially and temporally adaptive action road map that integrates risk management into urban planning and governance, thereby enhancing resilience and promoting sustainable development in the face of escalating climate change impacts. The findings provide essential, evidence-based insights to assist regional and national policymakers in Vietnam in formulating integrated, socially informed adaptation strategies that effectively bridge the gap between technical interventions and governance capacity.