Support for Protests in Post-conflict Societies: Evidence from Survey Experiments in Iraq
摘要
This paper examines which types of protest are more likely to garner public support in fragile post-conflict states, drawing on evidence from survey experiments conducted in Iraq in 2023. While a substantial body of research has examined protest under democratic and authoritarian regimes, less attention has been paid to how citizens evaluate different forms of protest in post-conflict contexts characterized by weak state capacity, fragmented authority, and recurrent mobilization. Building on this literature, the study conceptualizes public support for protest as a function of four dimensions: grievance orientation, identity inclusiveness, elite association, and perceived risk. Using a combination of conjoint and vignette experiments, it analyzes how these dimensions shape public evaluations of protest configurations. The results suggest two main patterns. First, protests tend to receive more favorable evaluations when they address issues closely related to everyday life and avoid explicit leadership by political elites or organizations, reflecting widespread political distrust and concerns over elite-driven mobilization. Second, protests that bridge sectarian and ethnic divisions are associated with higher levels of support, highlighting the importance of cross-group inclusiveness in fragmented post-conflict societies. Taken together, these findings suggest that public support for protest is shaped by a multidimensional logic, rather than by any single factor alone. This perspective helps clarify the conditions under which protest movements are more likely to resonate with broader audiences in fragile post-conflict settings.