<p>The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development represents a roadmap for navigating a sustainable path for global human development through 17 goals spanning economic, social and environmental domains. While ex-ante modelling is frequently used to anticipate progress in the economic and environmental spheres, the social domain remains relatively neglected. To fill this gap and taking an EU perspective, this paper combines novel ex-post econometrics and ex-ante simulation modelling. Using a double-lasso econometric panel specification for two key social indicators (education and gender), the study identifies key drivers and estimates their associated effects. Results indicate that economic growth, lower agricultural employment, higher education expenditure and trade openness raise post-secondary education attainment rates amongst 25–29-year-olds. Conversely, the gender wage gap is reduced by economic growth, increases in agricultural employment and average years of education, more equitable income distribution and fewer urban agglomerations. When these drivers are integrated into an ex-ante multi-regional simulation model, a ‘global slowdown’ scenario reveals a rising gender pay gap and declining post-secondary attainment rates across the EU by 2040. From a policy perspective, the drivers of tertiary attainment reinforce the importance of EU strategies that promote economic resilience, sustained public investment in human capital, and global market integration. Furthermore, while lifelong learning remains key for narrowing the gender wage gap, the importance of income distribution, urban agglomeration and employment in agriculture highlights the need for targeted labour-market and social policies that integrate gender mainstreaming in urban planning and rural development.</p>