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<p>China’s industrial restructuring (2012–2017) yielded a net carbon emissions reduction of 432 Mt (4.6% of 2017 emissions), but these gains were distributed unevenly across regions. Emission cuts were concentrated in certain traditional resource-dependent and coastal provinces, while a few regions saw structural emission increases, reflecting heterogeneous regional outcomes. Signed triadic network analysis identifies an east–west asymmetry in the redistribution of carbon-responsibility changes, with a non-trivial share of triads classified as high-tension under the proposed Structural Tension Index. Inequality metrics further reveal this mixed distributional pattern. Relative to counterfactual scenarios, the national carbon Gini coefficient declined under restructuring, indicating a moderation of overall carbon inequality. Analyses of the Supply Chain Carbon Inequality Index (CCI) and the Bilateral Carbon Inequality Index (BCI) further indicated that some dimensions of inequality were moderated under the observed later-period structures. However, several less-developed provinces, including Xinjiang and Ningxia, were associated with rising structural carbon exposure and a less favorable carbon–value position under the observed structure, while some advanced eastern provinces were associated with more favorable carbon–value positions. Overall, under the counterfactual comparison, the observed structure was associated with lower aggregate emissions and a lower national Gini coefficient, while coinciding with rising structural carbon exposure in some less-developed regions, pointing to a tension between decarbonization and regional equity.</p>

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Reallocating carbon responsibility: Does industrial restructuring increase the burden on less developed regions and deepen regional carbon inequality in China?

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月16日

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  • Hailiang Huang,
  • Qinghua Pang,
  • Chenjun Zhang

摘要

China’s industrial restructuring (2012–2017) yielded a net carbon emissions reduction of 432 Mt (4.6% of 2017 emissions), but these gains were distributed unevenly across regions. Emission cuts were concentrated in certain traditional resource-dependent and coastal provinces, while a few regions saw structural emission increases, reflecting heterogeneous regional outcomes. Signed triadic network analysis identifies an east–west asymmetry in the redistribution of carbon-responsibility changes, with a non-trivial share of triads classified as high-tension under the proposed Structural Tension Index. Inequality metrics further reveal this mixed distributional pattern. Relative to counterfactual scenarios, the national carbon Gini coefficient declined under restructuring, indicating a moderation of overall carbon inequality. Analyses of the Supply Chain Carbon Inequality Index (CCI) and the Bilateral Carbon Inequality Index (BCI) further indicated that some dimensions of inequality were moderated under the observed later-period structures. However, several less-developed provinces, including Xinjiang and Ningxia, were associated with rising structural carbon exposure and a less favorable carbon–value position under the observed structure, while some advanced eastern provinces were associated with more favorable carbon–value positions. Overall, under the counterfactual comparison, the observed structure was associated with lower aggregate emissions and a lower national Gini coefficient, while coinciding with rising structural carbon exposure in some less-developed regions, pointing to a tension between decarbonization and regional equity.