Strategic tiered governance for ecological risks in China: integrating spatial constraints with regionally differentiated policies

Progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals in China can be constrained by compound ecological risks when hazard exposure, ecological fragility, and imbalances between human pressure and local capacity overlap in the same places. However, national evidence is often assembled from separate, single-topic assessments, which makes it harder to identify where multiple drivers occur together and to choose appropriate policy responses. Here, we develop a national framework that integrates natural hazard exposure (H), ecological fragility (F), and socioeconomic sensitivity (S), and combines them multiplicatively to capture compounding stress when these conditions coincide. We find that high-risk clusters are concentrated in southwestern and south-central China, forming a mountain-and-hill belt south of the Yangtze River. High and extreme risk classes together include 15.99% of the population but only 10.18% of nighttime-light activity and 5.20% of built-up area, suggesting that development remains exposed within a geographically concentrated risk pattern. Spatial tests, including global autocorrelation and Getis–Ord Gi* hotspot analysis, show clear clustering and non-random overlap among drivers, with higher risk where high exposure coincides with strong imbalance. By moving beyond single-factor explanations, the framework supports tailored policies for (i) multi-driver hotspots, (ii) areas where imbalance dominates, and (iii) ecological buffer regions, and offers a clear baseline for regular risk reviews to guide ecological security planning and sustainable management.