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<p>Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality, industrial cities, being major sources of carbon emissions, require a comprehensive analysis of their economy-wide embodied carbon-transfer mechanisms. This study focuses on Chongqing, a representative industrial city, and constructs an embodied carbon-transfer prediction and analysis by integrating a single-region, import-adjusted, non-competitive input–output model with a gray forecasting model. This approach establishes an inter-sectoral embodied carbon-transfer analytical framework encompassing three components: historical accounting, dynamic forecasting, and pathway design. Drawing on input–output tables and carbon emissions data for Chongqing from 1997 to 2020, the study quantitatively examines the dynamic evolution and future trajectory of the city’s embodied carbon transfer. The results reveal a “stepwise” growth pattern of embodied carbon transfers across sectors, alongside significant sectoral heterogeneity. The analysis precisely identifies carbon-intensive sectors such as transportation, electricity and heat production and supply, and construction, as well as high-carbon industrial chains including “electricity → chemicals → non-metallic mineral products → construction” and “electricity → electrolytic aluminum → automobile and motorcycle manufacturing.” The model projects that Chongqing’s total embodied carbon transfer will increase to 292.9 million tons by 2030. Furthermore, the evolution of embodied carbon transfers is found to be closely coupled with regional economic structural transformation, exhibiting a three-phase pattern of “high-carbon lock-in and extensive growth,” “structural adjustment and turbulence,” and “emergence of new business models.” These findings provide a scientific basis for overcoming carbon lock-in in industrial cities and for designing systemic emission-reduction pathways across sectors such as construction, transportation, and energy, as well as for formulating differentiated industry-specific carbon mitigation policies.</p>

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Carbon footprint and embodied carbon transfer in industrial cities: an analysis of Chongqing based on the SRIO and GM (1,1) models

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月21日

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  • Zhengai Dong,
  • Kai Wang,
  • Lichen Zhang

摘要

Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality, industrial cities, being major sources of carbon emissions, require a comprehensive analysis of their economy-wide embodied carbon-transfer mechanisms. This study focuses on Chongqing, a representative industrial city, and constructs an embodied carbon-transfer prediction and analysis by integrating a single-region, import-adjusted, non-competitive input–output model with a gray forecasting model. This approach establishes an inter-sectoral embodied carbon-transfer analytical framework encompassing three components: historical accounting, dynamic forecasting, and pathway design. Drawing on input–output tables and carbon emissions data for Chongqing from 1997 to 2020, the study quantitatively examines the dynamic evolution and future trajectory of the city’s embodied carbon transfer. The results reveal a “stepwise” growth pattern of embodied carbon transfers across sectors, alongside significant sectoral heterogeneity. The analysis precisely identifies carbon-intensive sectors such as transportation, electricity and heat production and supply, and construction, as well as high-carbon industrial chains including “electricity → chemicals → non-metallic mineral products → construction” and “electricity → electrolytic aluminum → automobile and motorcycle manufacturing.” The model projects that Chongqing’s total embodied carbon transfer will increase to 292.9 million tons by 2030. Furthermore, the evolution of embodied carbon transfers is found to be closely coupled with regional economic structural transformation, exhibiting a three-phase pattern of “high-carbon lock-in and extensive growth,” “structural adjustment and turbulence,” and “emergence of new business models.” These findings provide a scientific basis for overcoming carbon lock-in in industrial cities and for designing systemic emission-reduction pathways across sectors such as construction, transportation, and energy, as well as for formulating differentiated industry-specific carbon mitigation policies.