Dynamic interactions between policy instruments and science popularization performance: a VAR analysis in China

Although policy instruments for science popularization have proliferated across different national contexts, few studies have examined the dynamic interactions between policy instruments and their measurable performance outcomes. This study employs vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to explore what and how different types of policy instruments interact with science popularization performance within China’s evolving policy landscape. The results demonstrate that analyzing policy dynamics through examining the individual and collective temporal patterns of supply-side, environmental, and demand-side instruments represents a promising approach. The econometric methods employed in this study yield insightful findings: supply-side policy instruments exhibit negative effects on performance outcomes with a variance contribution rate of 10.9%; environmental policy instruments show sustained positive effects, peaking in period 2 with a variance contribution rate of 8.9%; while demand-side policy instruments demonstrate short-term positive impacts that decline rapidly after period 2, with a variance contribution rate of 1.0%. Based on 332 national policy documents (2008-2022) and an performance index weighted by the entropy weight method encompassing 15 indicators, this analysis proposes a “dynamic policy portfolio” framework that emphasizes temporal orchestration—sequentially implementing environmental foundation-building, demand-side activation, and targeted supply-side inputs. The findings contribute to addressing the policy-effectiveness paradox and establishing adaptive governance systems for science popularization policy.