<p>The relationship between urbanization and crime has long remained inconclusive. This study re-examines this relationship within an analytical framework of structural change, environmental restructuring, and individual decision-making. Spatial econometric analysis based on panel data from prefecture-level cities in Province A, China, reveals that urbanization has a significant positive effect on the overall crime rate. This finding remains valid after employing instrumental variables constructed from the 1990 urbanization rate and terrain slope to address endogeneity, as well as after conducting various robustness checks. Mechanism analysis confirms that urbanization affects crime rates by restructuring the social and spatial environments. Specifically, the social mechanism operates by intensifying the degree of social disorganization, while the spatial mechanism functions by expanding the criminal opportunity space centered on high-value targets. A more disaggregated analysis by crime type reveals that urbanization positively affects snatching, theft, robbery, and fraud, though the magnitude varies considerably. Moderating effect analysis reveals that formal control capacity constitutes an important boundary condition for this relationship. In regions with higher initial clearance rates, the crime-enhancing effect of urbanization on overall crime rates is significantly mitigated. Among specific crime types, significant moderating effects are found for high-visibility crimes such as snatching, robbery, and theft, but not for concealed crimes such as fraud. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the relationship between urbanization and crime, and provides empirical evidence for developing countries on how to effectively govern crime in the process of rapid urbanization.</p>