Unraveling dynamic evolution of urban social resilience under new-type urbanisation in the Yellow River Basin
摘要
Urban social resilience (USR) is increasingly recognised as a critical capacity for addressing multiple disturbances and uncertainties; however, existing studies have largely focused on specific shocks, and systematic investigations of general USR remain limited. In the context of multiple disturbances and urbanisation transition, this study develops an analytical framework for general urban social resilience encompassing four dimensions: resistance (SR), recovery (SE), adaptability (SA), and transformability (ST). Using panel data from 77 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2012 to 2021, this study examines the spatio-temporal evolution and obstacle factors of USR, and further elucidates the relationship between USR and different stages of urbanisation transition. The results show that: (1) USR in the YRB exhibited a continuous upward trend, with a gradual decline from downstream to upstream regions. (2) The dominant resilience configuration evolved from SE–SR–SA to SE–SR. (3) USR exhibited significant spatial dependence and club convergence, with positive spatial spillover effects observed in resistance, recovery, and transformability, but not in adaptability. (4) Major obstacle factors were concentrated in adaptability and transformability. The findings further suggest that USR is undergoing a transition from reactive response to proactive capacity building during the process of new-type urbanisation. Accordingly, enhancing USR requires prioritising foresight, comprehensiveness, and institutionalisation, balancing the enhancement of short-term and long-term capacities, and strengthening cross-regional collaborative governance. These findings provide new theoretical and practical insights into resilience research.