<p>The Arctic has long been governed through a framework of cooperation, environmental stewardship, and diplomatic restraint—often conceptualized as Arctic exceptionalism. However, escalating geopolitical tensions and accelerating climate change increasingly challenge this governance paradigm. This study examines the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a critical test case for assessing whether Arctic exceptionalism persists, erodes, or transforms under emerging global pressures. We develop an integrated analytical framework to evaluate the NSR’s strategic value (SV) across three interrelated dimensions: economic competitiveness, geopolitical reliability, and cooperation potential. Using panel regressions, we show that climate-induced sea-ice retreat and port efficiency enhance the NSR’s economic attractiveness, while rising geopolitical risks undermine navigational reliability—except during periods when disruptions to alternative routes elevate the NSR’s relative importance. A game-theoretic model further demonstrates that cooperative participation along the NSR is sustainable only under balanced surplus-sharing arrangements, whereas excessive rent extraction destabilizes collaboration. Scenario projections to 2030 indicate that coordinated governance and joint infrastructure investment can partially preserve cooperative norms, while fragmented or unilateral strategies significantly weaken the NSR’s viability. These findings suggest that the NSR reflects a conditional and institutionally mediated form of cooperation, providing an empirical illustration of how Arctic exceptionalism operates as a strategically negotiated and context-dependent governance outcome. By positioning Arctic shipping within broader debates on exceptionalism, conflict avoidance, and institutional resilience, this study contributes to understanding how climate dynamics and geopolitical tensions jointly reshape the prospects for peaceful governance in the Arctic.</p>