Scholarlink

<p>Interprovincial trade facilitates exchanges of goods and embodied factors, potentially creating asymmetric relationships between value-added and employment flows due to regional development disparities. Using Multi-Regional Input-Output modeling and the Regional Trade Inequality (RTI) index, this study analyzes China’s interprovincial trade patterns from 2012-2017. Results reveal approximately 48% of provinces experienced economic inflows coupled with employment outflows. Eastern provinces (e.g., Shanghai, Beijing) consistently import embodied employment while capturing disproportionate economic benefits. Meanwhile, central and western regions (e.g., Anhui, Hebei) export substantial labor resources without receiving commensurate economic returns. The RTI analysis demonstrates increasing inequality over time, with developed eastern provinces shifting employment burdens to less developed regions while consolidating economic gains (e.g., Beijing-Guizhou RTI increased from 0.5 to 1.14). Scenario analysis under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways shows RTI improvements until an inflection point between 2050-2055, with only the sustainability-oriented SSP1 maintaining continuous improvement. Notably, the fossil fuel-driven SSP5 scenario eventually deteriorates, indicating carbon-intensive growth undermines employment equity. This study highlights China’s regional socio-economic challenges and provides evidence supporting more equitable and sustainable regional development policies.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Embodied employment and economic returns in China’s interprovincial trade: current patterns and future trajectories

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月18日

查看全文
  • Siyu Ren,
  • Qiqi Li,
  • Weijin Qian,
  • Yifan Yang

摘要

Interprovincial trade facilitates exchanges of goods and embodied factors, potentially creating asymmetric relationships between value-added and employment flows due to regional development disparities. Using Multi-Regional Input-Output modeling and the Regional Trade Inequality (RTI) index, this study analyzes China’s interprovincial trade patterns from 2012-2017. Results reveal approximately 48% of provinces experienced economic inflows coupled with employment outflows. Eastern provinces (e.g., Shanghai, Beijing) consistently import embodied employment while capturing disproportionate economic benefits. Meanwhile, central and western regions (e.g., Anhui, Hebei) export substantial labor resources without receiving commensurate economic returns. The RTI analysis demonstrates increasing inequality over time, with developed eastern provinces shifting employment burdens to less developed regions while consolidating economic gains (e.g., Beijing-Guizhou RTI increased from 0.5 to 1.14). Scenario analysis under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways shows RTI improvements until an inflection point between 2050-2055, with only the sustainability-oriented SSP1 maintaining continuous improvement. Notably, the fossil fuel-driven SSP5 scenario eventually deteriorates, indicating carbon-intensive growth undermines employment equity. This study highlights China’s regional socio-economic challenges and provides evidence supporting more equitable and sustainable regional development policies.